By Dwight D. Weidman 31 October 2020
Ok, it’s almost here! In just a few days we’ll know who our next President will be. For those who watch the polls, the same media polling outfits that told us Hillary Clinton would win in 2016 are now telling us that Joe Biden is going to run away with this one. There are a few polls that show a close race, but the casual TV watcher will never see those. Fortunately, not many people are taking polls seriously these days, so this guide might be helpful in giving you an early hint of which way the election is going as Tuesday evening goes by The Electoral College map below will help you visualize the results as they come in. At the end of the article is a link to an interactive map you can use. Remember, it takes 270 electoral votes to win.
The states have different closing times, and I will list them below, converted into Eastern Standard time. A few states cover two time zones, so their closing time will reflect the time when the western most polls in that state will shut down.
Polls Closing at 7:00 PM
Indiana, 11 electoral votes. President Trump should win this easily. In 2016, he beat Clinton here by almost 20 points, 57.2-37.9%. Results should be reported early.
Kentucky, 8 electoral votes. Again, President Trump should win here easily. He beat Hillary Clinton here by almost 30 points, 62.5-32.7%. Results should be reported early.
South Carolina, 9 electoral votes. President Trump should win here, beating Clinton 54.9-40.8% in 2016. Results should be reported early.
Georgia, 16 electoral votes. Many media polls have this one as a tossup. Trump beat Clinton by nearly 6 points here in 2016, 51.3-45.6%. It may take awhile before this one is called, but if Trump wins this one fairly early, it will be a good sign for him.
Virginia, 13 electoral votes. Hillary Clinton won this one in 2016 by nearly 5 points, 49.9-45.0%. If Trump can close the gap and this one takes awhile to call, it would be another good sign for him
Vermont, 3 electoral votes. This is Bernie Land, so Sleepy Joe should prevail here, but watch the final margin. Clinton won here is 2016 by 29 points, 61.1-32.6%.
Polls Closing at 7:30 PM
North Carolina, 15 electoral votes. President Trump beat Clinton here by nearly 4 points in 2016, 50.5-46.7%. Again, many media polls have this one very close. A Trump win here, especially an early call, would be another very good sign for him.
Ohio, 18 electoral votes. No Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio since the advent of the two-party system, and no Democrat has won the White House without Ohio since 1960. President Trump beat Clinton here 52.1-43.5% in 2016. Some media polls have Biden ahead, but I have a feeling the President will win here.
West Virginia, 5 electoral votes. The President crushed Hillary Clinton in 2016 here by 42 points, 68.7-26.5%. Put this one in the bank for Trump. Montani Semper Liberi (Mountaineers are always free).
Polls Closing at 8:00 PM
Trump should win easily in the following 8 PM states:
Alabama, 9 electoral votes. Beat Clinton here 62.9-34.6% in 2016
Mississippi, 6 electoral votes. Beat Clinton here 58.3-39.7%
Missouri, 10 electoral votes. Beat Clinton 57.1-38.0%
Oklahoma, 7 electoral votes. Beat Clinton 65.3-28.9%
Tennessee, 11 electoral votes. Beat Clinton 61.1-34.9%.
Biden should win in the following 8 PM states:
Connecticut, 7 electoral votes. Clinton won 54.5-41.2% here in 2016.
Delaware, 3 electoral votes. Biden land. Clinton won here 53.4-41.9% here in 2016
Illinois, 20 electoral votes. Clinton won big here in 2016 55.4-39.4%.
Massachusetts, 11 electoral votes. Clinton won here 60.8-33.5%.
Maryland, 10 electoral votes. Clinton won here 60.5-35.3%.
New Jersey, 14 electoral votes. Clinton won here 55.0-41.8%.
Rhode Island, 4 electoral votes. Clinton won here 55.4-39.8%.
Washington D.C., 3 electoral votes. Clinton won here 92.8-4.1%.
The following 8 PM states are critical tossups:
Florida, 29 electoral votes.Trump won here in 2016 49.1-47.8%. Keep an eye on this one. A Trump win here is big. Democrat early mail-in voting initially showed a big advantage, but Republicans have nearly caught up through early in-person voting, and now the Democrat lead in early voting is below what it was in 2016.
Maine, 4 electoral votes. Clinton won here by about 3 points in 2016, 47.9-45.2%, but Maine awards its electoral votes by district so expect Trump to win at least 1 electoral vote here.
New Hampshire, 4 electoral votes. Clinton won in a squeaker here, 47.6-47.2% and is a possible flip for Trump. This one one went pretty late in 2016.
Pennsylvania, 20 electoral votes. This is one to watch. Trump won here by 48.8-47.6% in 2016. Major concerns about voter fraud here, so this one may go well past midnight. If Trump starts building a decent lead, it will be a VERY good sign.
Polls Closing at 8:30 PM
Arkansas, 6 electoral votes. Trump won here in 2016 60.4-33.8% and will win again. Look for an early call.
Polls closing at 9 PM:
Arizona, 11 electoral votes. Some call this a tossup but I don’t. Trump won here by 4 points in 2016, 49-5-45.4% and should win again.
Colorado, 9 electoral votes. Clinton won here in 2016 by less than three points, 47.2-44.4% could Trump pull off an upset in this blue state?
Kansas, 6 electoral votes. Trump won 57.2-37.2 here in 2016 and will win this one easily.
Louisiana, 8 electoral votes. Trump won here 58.1-38.4 in 2016 will easily win again.
Michigan, 16 electoral votes. Trump won this one in a squeaker, 47.6-47.3% in 2016, and it should be close again. Another state to keep an eye on.
Minnesota, 10 electoral votes. Clinton won 46.9-45.4 in this traditionally blue state in 2016, but could the violence in Minneapolis win Trump votes? This would be big if Trump could flip it.
Nebraska, 5 electoral votes. Nebraska also splits it’s electoral votes by district, but Trump won by 60.3-34.0% in 2016, so he should win most if not all of the five.
New Mexico, 5 electoral votes. A very blue state that Clinton won 48.3-40.0% in 2016. It will be interesting to see if Trump can make it closer, but Biden probably wins here.
New York, 29 electoral votes. This is a Biden lock. Clinton won here 58.5-37.5% in 2016.
North Dakota, 3 electoral votes. Trump won this one 64.1-27.8% in 2016 and will win again.
South Dakota, 3 electoral votes. Home of a possible future GOP Presidential candidate, Governor Kristi Noem, this is Trump territory that he won 61.5-31.7 in 2016. Trump wins easily.
Texas, 38 electoral votes. One of the big prizes of the evening. Texas is supposedly getting more blue, and the media is trying to say this is a tossup, just like they did four years ago, but I’m not buying it. Trump beat Clinton here 52.6-43.4% in 2016, and he should win again. Don’t mess with Texas!
Wisconsin, 10 electoral votes. Trump squeaked out a win here in this traditionally blue state in 2016, 47.9-46.9%. The current legitimate polling, such as Trafalgar Group, show it within the margin of error. One ridiculous ABC News/Washington Post Poll has Biden up 17 points and that is pure fantasy. This will be a close one and a legitimate tossup. Once again, mob violence in places like Kenosha may help the law and order candidate, Trump.
Wyoming, 3 electoral votes. Trump won 70.1-22.5% in 2016 and will coast to victory again.
Polls closing at 10 PM
Iowa, 6 electoral votes. Trump won this one handily in 2016, 51.8-42.2%. Some media polls have it close and even Biden in the lead, but I see Trump winning this state again.
Montana, 3 electoral votes. Trump won 56.5-36.0% in 2016 and will easily win again.
Nevada,6 electoral votes. Clinton won this blue state 47.9-45.5% in 2016, but some polling has this one very close. A tossup, but another opportunity for Trump to flip another one into his column.
Utah, 6 electoral votes. Trump won big here in 2016, 45.9-27.8%, despite #neverTrump Independent and former CIA officer Evan McMullin (sounds more like a breakfast sandwich) siphoning off 21% of the vote. Trump wins big here.
Polls closing at 11 PM
California, 55 electoral votes. Clinton won big here in 2016 61.5-33.2% and Biden will win here on Nov 3rd. This state accounted for most if not all of Clinton’s winning margin in the popular vote in 2016, much of it probably fraudulent.
Hawaii, 4 electoral votes. Clinton won here 62.3-30.1% in 2016 and Biden will also carry Hawaii.
Idaho, 4 electoral votes. Trump won here 59.2-27.6% in 2016 and will win here again.
Oregon, 7 electoral votes. A normally deep blue state, but mob violence and unrest here could help Trump, who lost here to Clinton 51.7-41.1% in 2016. Nevertheless, probably a Biden win.
Washington, 12 electoral votes. Another crazy deep blue state where Clinton beat Trump 54.4-38.2% in 2016. Biden wins here.
Polls closing at 1 AM
Alaska, 3 electoral votes. Actually most polls in Alaska close at midnight, EST, but there are Alaska polls closer to Siberia than the USA that close later. Trump won here 52.9-37.7% in 2016 and will easily win again.
Well, that’s it. Something to pay attention to is the winning margin for each candidate by state. Even before the state is “called” by the networks, compare the percentages of votes for each candidate to the percentages between Trump and Clinton in 2016. Four early states to watch are Georgia, North Carolina Ohio, and Florida. If President Trump maintains a margin equal to or above what his final margin of victory was in 2016 in those states, then it will probably be a good night for him (and us). The President has to keep the south “solid” (with the exception of Virginia). The next battleground will be the midwest, and of course, Pennsylvania.
Should be an interesting night. If you like, click on the map graphic below to go to an interactive electoral vote map. Remember, it takes 270 to win.
Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com